Plymouth, with a bigger fanbase on crowd averages, are the slight favourites for the 90-minute victory at 2.70, with AFC Wimbledon at 3.10. The draw is about 3.30.
Plymouth finished the League Two season six points above the Dons who didn't have the greatest record against fellow top seven teams, a combination of which seems to justify their bigger price than Argyle. But they showed great character to come back at Accrington and the second half of the season was when they came on strong.
The historical fact that Plymouth have been to Wembley just once before, winning the 1996 Third Division playoff final, will have no bearing, especially when AFC Wimbledon, as a club, have a more recent playoff winning experience, albeit not at Wembley.
AFC Wimbledon will be hoping to keep the defence, for whom Paul Robinson has been excellent, as tight as in six of their last eight matches, when they kept a clean sheet. Dannie Bulman's presence in sitting in front of the defence has also made it tight.
In one sense, the stats are for AFC Wimbledon. In three of the last six years the team finishing seventh has gone on to win promotion, but last year it was the fifth placed team - as Plymouth have finished this time - Southend, who went up via Wembley.
I don't expect a particularly tight game as creative players like Graham Carey and Gregg Wylde for Plymouth and - for their opponents - George Francombe, marauding forward, andSean Rigg find space and go for it.
I have this feeling that AFC Wimbledon, initially, will play with more freedom than Plymouth, who could come on stronger once they find a foothold, with substitute Reuben Reid waiting to prowl like a primed lion to snare his prey. The match could just go the way of Plymouth in the end.
Over 2.5 Goals
Given that both sides have capable scorers, a price of 1.80 for under 2.5 goals and 2.20 for overs might seem the wrong way around. However, AFC Wimbledon only scored 64 goals in the regular season, the lowest by a distance in the top seven.
They also only conceded 50 which equates to 2.4 per game.
Eight of their last 11 league and playoff games have finished under 2.5 goals.
Plymouth, however, struck up a string of nine games with over 2.5 goals before their 1-0 win over Portsmouth in the semis. Three of the last five League Two playoff finals have been resolved with under 2.5 goals.
On Wembley's big pitch, that's a bit of a surprise and I would expect when there are very capable attackers in Lyle Taylor and Jamille Matt then there will be at least three goals.
Peter Hartley (about 40.00), whose stoppage time goal saw off Portsmouth to give him his best ever moment in football, has perhaps had his moment in the sun so the Pilgrims ought to be looking for another Messiah to score.
Midfielder Graham Carey 8.00 and forward Jake Jervis [6.5] are top scorers with 11, but the talented yet combustible Jamille Matt at 5.50 is the more likely spark for Argyle. Reuben Reid at 7.00 would be a more interesting choice if he was guaranteed a start.
On the Dons' side, Lyle Taylor is the obvious market leader at 5.00 but Tom Elliott at 8.00 can be considered while if the game is goalless after the first half and Akinfenwa come on after an hour his price will plummet from [8.5].
Recommended Bets: Back Plymouth to win at2.70 Back Over 2.5 Goals at2.20 Back Jamille Matt to score first at 5.50
Real Madrid v Atletico Madrid Saturday 19:45 (Live on BT Sport Europe) Real2.54, Atletico 3.35, The Draw 3.20
Since 2001, 6/15 Champions League finals have gone to extra-time. That too suggests the draw is generously priced at 3.20. With both sides at full strength and bringing solid defences to this weekend's jamboree, we're expecting another close encounter. Low-scoring games (see below) are more likely to be drawn, so we're bracing for a 2016 Champions League final that's short on goals and long on duration.
Over/Under 2.5 Goals
Since April last year, there have been four Madrid derbies. Between them, they've produced just four goals. Going back to February 2014 again, 8/12 meetings have ended with two goals or fewer, and Under 2.5 Goals is a firm favourite for this weekend.
Method of Victory
Instead of just backing the draw, back both teams to win on penalties to level stakes - both at10.50 - and, in the event of a draw followed by another goalless extra-time, you'll be paid out at odds of 5.25.
Hull v Sheffield Wednesday Saturday 28 May, 17:00 Championship Play-Off Final, Wembley
The Tigers are 2.36 favourites with Wednesday available to back at 3.60 and the draw priced at3.30. Remember that these prices just apply to 90 minutes and there is a separate market if you fancy backing either side to win in extra-time or on penalties.
Over/Under 2.5 goals
This makes the 1.59 about under 2.5 goals plenty short enough in the circumstances. That's not to say I don't expect a tight contest but I thought we'd see the same last year only for Norwich to race into a two-goal lead after just 15 minutes against Middlesbrough. Surprisingly, that one actually stayed like that for the rest of the game so unders did land but on this occasion with the prices on offer the market just doesn't appeal.
Back Sheffield Wednesday to win promotion at2.52 *best bet Back the draw at3.30
A turbulent week for Manchester United rounded off with some great news for supporters, as the Red Devils now look forward to next season with confidence.
The win in the FA Cup final last week was marred by the sacking of Louis van Gaal 48 hours later and plenty has happened since then.
With rumours rife and speculation flying everywhere, the club finally made the announcement everyone had wanted on Friday.
With that in mind, here is a round-up of everything surrounding the club as we wrap up the business week.
Manchester United confirmed the arrival of Jose Mourinho as their new manager on Friday. The 53-year-old signed a three-year deal with the option of a further year and admitted after he could not turn down such a massive club like the Red Devils. Manchester United created 312 chances in the league this season.
Furthermore, Manchester United‘s executive vice-chairman Ed Woodward has labelled Jose Mourinho the “best manager” in the game, after the arrival of the 53-year-old at the club today. Woodward played a big part in luring the former Chelsea manager to Old Trafford and had plenty of words to hail the Portuguese tactician. Manchester United averaged 55% possession in the league this season. (Official website)
However, Manchester United fear the appointment of Mourinho will not be enough to convince David De Gea to stay at the club this summer. The 25-year-old came agonisingly close to joining Real Madrid last summer, but has still been tipped to join Los Blancos this summer. Whilst Mourinho has replaced Louis van Gaal at the helm, talks over convincing De Gea to stay in England are not looking positive at the moment. De Gea kept 15 clean sheets in the league this season. (Squawka Exclusive)
Juan Mata’s advisers are set to seek assurances from Jose Mourinho to make sure he still has a role to play at Manchester United. The 28-year-old was sold by the new United boss whilst they were at Chelsea together and Mata is unsure whether he will be in Mourinho’s plans once he takes over the Red Devils in July. Mata created more chances (53) than any other Man Utd player in the league this season. (Daily Mail)
Chelsea appear to have made contact with Juventus for the transfer of midfielder Paul Pogba, a player valued at around €100million by his current club, the news comes from the reliable GFFN.
Pogba is of course in demand and is regarded as one of the best midfielders in Europe, and he is only 23. Pogba has developed very well in Serie A but it seems as if this summer he would like to move on. Barcelona and Real Madrid are two serious contenders, but the former has financial constraints that may restrict a big money move. Chelsea do not. Chelsea’s lack of Champions League status may come back to haunt them in this one though as there will be plenty of big name clubs with European status that have the money to attract Pogba. At this stage, Juventus surely seems a better destination for Pogba than Chelsea, who appear to view Radja Nainggolan as a more realistic central midfield addition.
There no point in trying to portray the strengths of Pogba and how he would improve Chelsea, because for anyone whose seen him play, it is pretty obvious. The fact that it is hard to name a central midfielder better than him and he’s only 23, says it all.
The real question is can Chelsea really afford to sign him, and make the other additions that Antonio Conte wants to make? For example he is looking at signing a new striker and central defender also, both around the £20million-£30million mark. The lack of Champions League football and the fact that Chelsea are planning to utilise more of their academy products raises question marks as to whether Chelsea are seriously pursuing a deal, or they just wish to stay ‘in the loop’ with Pogba’s future updates.
In terms of who could and would realistically sign Pogba for €100million, there are probably only four clubs. Real Madrid, Manchester United, Paris Saint-Germain and Chelsea. Should Pogba confirm his intentions to move on from Juventus this summer, then you can expect all four clubs to be interested. What looks certain is that nothing will happen until Euro 2016 is over, so it’s best to sweep this one under the carpet for a few weeks.
There are a few ways you could play this. You could back the in-form hosts to win at 1.54, a decent play given that they have won their last four games, and have a 100% home record. If there was some liquidity in the Asian Handicap market, I'd have a crack at backing the hosts -1.0 or -1.5.
However, with no money currently in that market, we have to look elsewhere. You could backOver 2.5 Goals at 1.75, which has paid out in seven of HJK's ten games, including the last four.
I'm looking at backing Both Teams To Score at 1.87. Both teams have netted in seven of HJK's league games, and six of HIFK's nine outings.