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Football Bet of the Day: Sevilla to savage Las Palmas

Sevilla v Las Palmas
Wednesday 21:00
 (Live on Sky Sports Red Button)
It really was a mullering in Valencia last night. 5-0 the hosts marmalised Malaga, to bring home our Win to Nil bet with a thoroughly unnecessary flourish.
No matter, we're sticking around Iberia for at least one more day, and hoping for another one-sided game in Andalusia tonight.
Sevilla have taken all three points from each of Las Palmas's two recent visits to the Ramon Sanchez Pizjuan and look well set to make it 3/3 this evening. The hosts have started well under new boss Eduardo Berizzo this term, winning their last three Liga games without conceding.
On home turf, Sevilla have won 15/21 since the start of last term. Seven of those 15 wins were achieved with a margin of at least two goals. Over the same period, Las Palmas are W2-D3-L16 on their travels, with 8/16 defeats delivered with a margin of at least two goals.
Right now, Sevilla are brimming with form and confidence, and we fancy them to win this one with something to spare.
Recommended Bet
Back Sevilla -1.5 on the Asian Handicap @ 2.04 v Las Palmas

Serie A Betting: Guaranteed goals between Lazio and Napoli

Lazio v Napoli
Wednesday, 19:45
Live on BT Sport Extra 5
Live on Betfair Live Video

Two of the teams of the season so far meet in Rome in the first big test of Napoli's title credentials. Simone Inzaghi and Maurizio Sarri are probably the two best regarded coaches in Italy, and it will be fascinating to see one try to outwit the other.
Lazio have been pretty much flawless this season, failing to break down SPAL on the opening day, but producing four consecutive wins since, while Napoli are unbeaten in Serie A, with just a failure at Shakhtar Donetsk on the opening Champions League matchday to peg them back.
As always, Napoli's games have been full of goals, and while they tend to be more circumspect away from home, each of their League matches so far in this campaign has had at least three goals. I see that trend continuing here, with Lazio also free scoring, aside from that rusty opener against SPAL. They showed against Genoa on Sunday night how positive and yet vulnerable they have the capacity to be, and we'll see more of that on Wednesday night.

Recommended Bet
Back Over 3.5 Goals in Lazio v Napoli @ 2.60

Milan v SPAL
Wednesday, 19:45
Live on Betfair Live Video

I decided to oppose Milan at home against Udinese at the weekend, and while that didn't work out, I'm happy to try the same tactic as they face Serie A new boys SPAL on Wednesday. Leonardo Semplici's team have already proved themselves to be tough to break down, and I think that he'll set them up to stop Milan, and there's every chance of his team achieving that goal.
SPAL might have failed to stop Inter, but it wasn't until late in the game that Ivan Perisic finally broke their resistance with a wonderful second goal, and that 0-0 draw against Lazio on the opening day was a fine result.
In between those matches, they have beaten Udinese at home in a thriller, and lost to Cagliari, and I think that they're going to turn into one of those teams that adopts a very different approach at home and away.
Milan are trading at 1.27 for the win, and while it's tempting to lay them again, I think that the goals markets offer a better route to profit. There might be some mileage in backing the 0-0 draw at 32.00, and Under 1.5 Goals at 6.20 also makes some appeal, but Under 2.5 Goals is priced in such a way that it gives us plenty of wriggle room, and so that is the bet.

Recommended Bet
Back Under 2.5 Goals in Milan v SPAL @ 2.80

Udinese v Torino
Wednesday, 19:45
Live on Betfair Live Video

Torino were back to their fun, high scoring ways against Sampdoria at the weekend, and as I explained in my preview of that game, that always seemed likely. It was a bonus that the result was a profitable one for this column.
Udinese have also showed themselves to be a team that is full of goals so far this campaign, playing five games in all competitions, four of which have gone over 2.5 goals, three going even higher than that.
It seems strange to see a Gigi Del Neri team producing stats like that, but he has an awful lot of attacking talent at his disposal and seems determined to use it. Jakub Jankto has started encouragingly, and the fabulously named Kevin Lasagna got his first Serie A goal at the weekend after a stellar season for Carpi last year.
Torino have the much-coveted Andrea Belotti to lead their line and a host of fine supporting acts in the shape of Iago Falque, Adem Ljajic and co, and so it's no real surprise that they have become the Serie A team to follow in terms of goals in the last year or so.
I don't see a reason to veer away from that philosophy, as I think that it will remain profitable as long as prices stay sensible. So, predictably, I'm going, once again, for Over 3.5 Goals in a Torino game at 2.90.

Recommended Bet

Back Over 3.5 Goals in Udinese v Torino @ 2.90

FFA Cup: Quarter Finals

Blacktown City v Western Sydney
A sellout crowd will be on hand to witness the battle of the west and it promises to live up to all the hype! With the NPL season over Blacktown have shifted all of their attention to the FFA Cup. They posted a 2-1 win over A-League side Wellington in a friendly and will have the added advantage of playing on their home pitch – an artificial turf surface that the Wanderers will not be accustomed to. The Wanderers looked comfortable in their win over Beltleigh Greens and Bonevacia looks to have filled the  void left by Aaron Mooy. They failed to cope with his exit last season but the Dutchman will help turn things around. It will be Santalab v Gibbs and both strikers have been in prolific form for their sides. Behind a boisterous crowd The Wolf can see Blacktown giving this one a real go! It is hard to see the host not finding the back of the net.
Best: Both Teams To Score – YES ($1.70)
Value: Over 3.5 goals ($2.15)
Gold Coast City v South Melbourne
It is easy to say that they have been lucky to be drawn in the quarter if the draw which has no A-League teams but both sides deserve to be here. Both finished in second spot on their respective league ladders and have extremely youthful sides. You won’t find any grey hairs in the Gold Coast City lineup but you will see Roman Hoffman. He has returned from a student exchange trip in Utrecht to take part in the match and says he will do the same if his side can make the semi’s and host an A-League side. Their form has been patchy to sat the least and they lost their last 3 matches to finish the season. They have scored just once in 4 games and that was the extra time winner against Moreton in this competition. South Melbourne on the other hand have been running riot. They have scored multiple goals in 4 consecutive matches and have scored 16 goals in their 6 FFA Cup outings this campaign. The visitors to grab the cash.
Best: South Melbourne WIN ($2.10)
Value: South Melbourne by 2+ ($3.25)

Manchester United v Burton: French hot-shot ready to make his mark

Manchester United v Burton
Wednesday 20th September, 19:45
Live on Sky Sports

Defending champions to give fringe players an opportunity

Manchester United continued their fine start to the new season with a 4-0 victory over Everton on Sunday and the Red Devils will be hoping to extend their hot streak when Championship outfit Burton arrive at Old Trafford on Wednesday.

United ousted Northampton, Manchester City, West Ham, Hull and Southampton on their way to taking the League Cup title last season with Jose Mourinho fielding a strong side throughout the competition.

However, the Red Devils are expected to make changes to their team with promising youngsters Andre Gomes and Scott McTominay potentially being given starts alongside fringe players Michael Carrick, Victor Lindelof. Luke Shaw and Anthony Martial.

Burton's wretched road record makes the visitors vulnerable

Burton began the new campaign as favourites for relegation in the Championship and after a dreadful start (W0-D0-L3), the Brewers have battled back to collect eight points from a possible 15 (W2-D2-L1), including a fine 2-1 triumph against Fulham last time out.

Nigel Clough's charges have won away at both Oldham and Cardiff en-route to the third round of the League Cup and the highly-motivated visitors will be desperate to make life difficult for the defending champions on their own patch.

But Burton's recent road record - claiming only two triumphs in 12 away Championship clashes - is far from ideal as Albion bid to reach the fourth round of the competition for the first time in their history.

Little value to be found in lopsided Match Odds

Despite making alterations to his first XI, Mourinho's Man Utd have understandably been chalked up as hot 1.09 favourites to progress to their ninth round tie in 10 campaigns with a victory in 90 minutes.

The hosts have scored at least twice in each of their outings this term while Burton 28.00 have already been beaten by four and five when travelling to Hull and Leeds in league action.

Indeed, Liverpool smashed Albion 5-0 at Anfield in this competition 12 months ago and although another lopsided contest is unlikely, the Brewers may not boast the attacking power capable of causing United too much trouble.

The Red Devils have shipped a solitary strike in five unbeaten Premier League matches and could well justify skinny quotes of 4/7 to win 'to nil' seeing as Burton have fired blanks in their last three fixtures outside of Staffordshire.

French hot-shot can make his mark at Old Trafford

In such a one-sided betting heat, it can often pay to look outside of the traditional markets and so there could be a slice of value available on Anthony Martial grabbing the first goal of this encounter at 3/1.

The French international has notched three goals and has one assist already this season despite featuring in only 120 minutes of league football. Martial's also a regular contributor in the League Cup with a goals per-minute record of 92 when viewing this competition as a standalone.

Recommended Bets
Back Anthony Martial to score first @ [3/1]

La Liga Betting: Real Betis have the cutting edge to net at the Bernabéu

Barcelona v Eibar
Tuesday, 21:00
Live on Sky Sports Mix and Betfair Live Video
Misery: just when you think you're out, it drags you back in again. Barcelona had a spring in their step after four wins on the spin, the outlook suddenly sunny again after the slow torture of the summer transfer window. But the mood soured just a touch on Saturday when Ousmane Dembéle - making his first start since that mega-bucks move from Borussia Dortmund - limped off just half an hour into the game against Getafe.
The prognosis is not good: the French flyer is likely to be out for four months - a significant blow for player and team. That Neymar-shaped hole is gaping all over again, with many in the Barça camp pointing at the state of the pitch at Coliseum Alfonso Pérez. "It was a field that couldn't be played on," huffed Gerard Deulofeu.
The Catalans eventually made the best of a bad situation, coming from behind to win thanks to goals from substitutes Denis Suárez and Paulinho. Ernesto Valverde will also find solace in the fixture list, with two very winnable fixtures up next before the Champions League returns. First up are Eibar, whose record against La Liga's big hitters over the last few seasons is not much to write home about.
Against the combined forces of Barcelona, Real Madrid, Sevilla, Atlético Madrid and Athletic Club, Los Armeros' record since they were promoted to Primera reads W0 D6 L29 (all competitions). José Luis Mendilibar's side tend to do their best work against the league's lower lights, then, and they have already drawn blanks against Athletic and Sevilla this term. With that in mind, we'll be backing a no-frills home win.
Recommended Bet
Back Barcelona to win to nil at 6/5

Athletic Club v Atlético Madrid
Wednesday, 19:00
Live on Sky Sports Mix and Betfair Live Video
We were a second-half Real Sociedad goal away from an 8/1 winner at the weekend, so we're emboldened to risk another long-odds bet in the midweek round. It's no banker, clearly, but there's a reasonable chance of a stalematewhen Athletic Club welcome Atlético Madrid to San Mamés on Wednesday.
Both of these teams have been stodgy in the early part of the season. Since a thriller against Panathinaikos, Athletic's results read 0-0, 1-0, 1-0, 2-0, 0-0, 0-1. The side from the capital spanked Las Palmas but the three games since have produced just one goal: Antoine Griezmann's housewarming winner at the new Wanda Metropolitano at the weekend.
The unders is the obvious pick but odds of 1.62 don't hold colossal appeal, so instead we'll take on the goalless draw and hope two imposing defences cancel each other out.
Recommended Bet
Back the 0-0 draw at 8.80

Real Madrid v Real Betis
Wednesday, 21:00
Live on Sky Sports Mix and Betfair Live Video
There's no doubt who will be centre of attention at the Bernabéu on Wednesday night. One of the European game's most respected wide men, a serial match-winner, is ready to strut his stuff once again. But enough about Joaquín; Cristiano Ronaldo is also back in action.
I jest, but not really: the Real Betis veteran, fresh from a brace that sealed three points for his side against Deportivo La Coruña, really will be one of the key men here. It just so happens that he'll share the stage with Madrid's returning hero, fresh and raring to after his four-match ban from the Super Cup.
His comeback is great news for Zinedine Zidane, who has seen his charges drop four points from their opening four games of the league season. With other personnel issues rearing their heads (Marco Asensio's shaving shocker, an injury to Karim Benzema, the sale of Álvaro Morata), Los Merengues have looked just a bit short of star power, even if Gareth Bale and Borja Mayoral both opened their accounts for the campaign at the weekend.
The unspoken feeling that Madrid's season only really starts now is probably not good news for Real Betis, who have not won at the Bernabéu since 1998. But the early signs of life under Quique Setién have been fairly positive and they have the attacking talent (Sergio LeónCristian Tello, the fit-again Ryad Boudebouz - and Joaquín) to cause one or two problems at the other end.
Recommended Bet
Back Read Madrid to win and both teams to score at Evens

The Daily Acca: Goals to flow in the EFL Cup

Bet 1: Back Augsburg +1 Goal @ 4/5 - KO 19:30 BST

It would appear that Augsburg have been underrated in the Betfair Markets as 4/5 for them to beat RB Leipzig at home with a one goal headstart seems like a decent bet to me.
The hosts could only finish 13th in the table last year, but they finished the season with just one defeat in six and they have started this campaign by taking seven points from a possible 12.
Manuel Baum's side have won their two latest outings - 3-0 against Koln and 2-1 at Eintracht Frankfurt. It's also worth noting that they have avoided defeat in 13 of their last 17 Bundesliga matches on this ground.
RB Leipzig have also taken seven points from their first four fixtures, but they were held at home on Saturday, and Liverpool-bound, Naby Keita, saw red, which means he will be absent from the midfield this evening.
It's also interesting to note, that despite their success last year, they have won just four of their last 12 away games in the league - losing five of them.

Bet 2: Back Over 2.5 Goals in Leicester v Liverpool @ 13/20 - KO 19:45 BST

The pressure is on both managers in this game tonight as Craig Shakespeare's team are 15th in the Premier League, while Jurgen Klopp's failure to address his side's defensive issues has begun to pick up steam in the media.
The latter is one of the main reasons for this selection. The fact of the matter is that the Liverpool defence are prone to too many errors and assuming that Leicester play Jamie Vardy, I can see him getting some real success.
At the other end of the field, The Reds should get some joy, and although they could only find the net once against Burnley at the weekend, they should be afforded more space in the final third at the King Power.

Bet 3: Back Over 2.5 Goals in West Ham v Bolton @ 4/7 - KO 19:45 BST

Further goals are expected in another EFL Cup tie tonight as West Ham could boost their confidence against a struggling Bolton side.
The visitors are rock bottom of the Championship and they come into the game on the back of four straight defeats. They conceded 10 goals during that period and in the last round of this competition, they still conceded two in their 3-2 victory over Sheffield Wednesday.
The pressure has eased slightly on Slaven Bilic as his team beat Huddersfield and then got a draw at West Brom. There will still be a slight uneasy feeling in the air at kick off though, so he will be desperate for his players to grab an early goal. If they can manage that, the floodgates really could open.

Bet 4: Back Over 2.5 Goals in Brentford v Norwich @ 8/15 - KO 19:45 BST

We conclude at Griffin Park for another EFL Cup tie, this time between Brentford and Norwich.
The recent stats aren't overly pointing towards goals as three of The Bees' last four have all gone under 2.5, as have three of Norwich's. I'm not willing to give up hope on this one being a goal-fest though and I still believe that 8/15 is a decent price.
Things are often different in the cup as fringe players try to make their mark. There is less pressure on the players as this particular competition comes as a lesser priority than the league, and that is highlighted by the fact that in the previous round, 18 of the 24 fixtures had at least three goals inside 90 minutes.

Recommended Acca
Back Augsburg +1 Goal @ 4/5
Back Over 2.5 Goals in Leicester v Liverpool @ 13/20
Back Over 2.5 Goals in West Ham v Bolton @ 4/7
Back Over 2.5 Goals in Brentford v Norwich @ 8/15

Bundesliga Betting: Schalke to hold up the champions

Schalke v Bayern Munich
Tuesday September 19, 19:30
Live on BT Sport 3
Bayern's mini-crisis came to a spectacular end on Saturday, as the Bavarian giants kicked off the annual Oktoberfest celebrations in style with a 4-0 drubbing of Mainz. Die Nullfunfer were bamboozled by Bayern's speed of play, Joshua Kimmich delivered three assists in a superb display, and Robert Lewandowski bagged a brace. The peerless Pole has now scored 82 Bundesliga goals in 100 appearances for Bayern.
Now though, Bayern face a trickier test. They visit a Schalke side that has won three of four games under new coach Domenico Tedesco. I believe the jury is still out on the 32-year-old, but there's no questioning the results he has produced. RB Leipzig, Stuttgart and Werder Bremen have all been overcome, and the bold call to jettison club captain Benedikt Howedes hasn't cost them yet.
Bayern are trading at 1.89 to be leading at half-time, and that's a price we can attack. Carlo Ancelotti's side have led at the break in just one of their last seven Bundesliga away games, while Schalke have trailed at the restart in just one of their last nine home matches.
Recommended Bet
Lay Bayern in the Half Time market at 1.89

Mainz v Hoffenheim
Wednesday September 20, 19:30
Hoffenheim have had a mixed week. They were stunning against Bayern on Matchday Three as they won 2-0, deadly in attack and resolute in defence. On Thursday they were schooled by Braga in the Europa League, as the Portuguese side used all their experience to turn around a match that was slipping away from them. On Sunday, Hoffe were held to a 1-1 draw by a Hertha side that worked incredibly hard to frustrate them.
It's worth remembering that Julian Nagelsmann's side have made an unbeaten start to the league campaign, so I can't fathom why they are 2.66 to win at a Mainz side that's just been stuffed by Bayern. Mainz have lost three of their first four games of the season, and it's taking time for new coach Sandro Schwarz to get his ideas across to the players.
Mainz have lost to newly-promoted Hannover and Stuttgart, and although their fans always generate a fantastic atmosphere at the Coface Arena, that won't faze Hoffe at all. I'm backing the visitors.
Recommended Bet
Back Hoffenheim Draw No Bet at 1.93

Hertha Berlin v Bayer Leverkusen
Wednesday September 20, 19:30
Bayer Leverkusen were very good on Sunday, as they thrashed Freiburg 4-0 to pick up their first league win under new coach Heiko Herrlich. However, it's worth noting that Freiburg were dreadful, and there are still big gaps in the Bayer defence that better teams will exploit.
Hertha were smashed 6-2 the last time they hosted Leverkusen, but that was in the midst of last season's late collapse, and coach Pal Dardai's fitness regime means Hertha always start the campaign better than they finish it. Hertha have won 13 of their last 20 home games, and they got a fine draw at Hoffeheim at the weekend, succeeding where the champions Bayern had just failed.
Bayer have lost both of their Bundesliga away games under Herrlich, and I think there's still an underlying fragility in that squad that Dardai's battlers can exploit.
Recommended Bet
Back Hertha Draw No Bet at 2.46

FC Koln v Eintracht Frankfurt
Wednesday September 20, 17:30
Live on BT Sport ESPN
These are testing times for FC Koln, and coach Peter Stoger is facing his biggest challenge since taking charge of the club. The Billy Goats have built their success on defensive discipline, cohesion and work-rate, but all of that went out of the window in Sunday's abject 5-0 defeat at Borussia Dortmund. Yes, there were two controversial VAR calls against them (both correct, in my opinion), but it was unquestionably the worst I've ever seen Koln play under Stoger.
For the first time in their history, Koln have lost their first four games of the Bundesliga season, but I think there'll be a reaction on Wednesday. I know what Koln fans are like, and they'll unite behind the team and create a cauldron at the RheinEnergieStadion.
Frankfurt are also reeling after losing at home to Augsburg at the weekend, and although their globe-trotting approach to the transfer market paid off last season, I'm not sure coach Niko Kovac has quite nailed down his best eleven. They are badly missing the injured Marco Fabian, and they have only won one of their last nine away games in the league.
Koln have won their last three home games against the Eagles, and I think they hit rock bottom on Sunday. The only way is up.
Recommended Bet
Back FC Koln Draw No Bet at 2.06

EFL Cup: 3rd Round

Tottenham v Barnsley – (Wed 5:00am)
Spurs are yet to register their first Premier League win at their temporary home ground (Wembley) and finding the back of the net at the venue has been a genuine problem with multiple goals in just 1 of their 4 home matches at the venue this season (all competitions). Getting it done against Barnsley should not be a problem and this match presents Pochettino with a opportunity to give some of his squad players game time. Llorente is likely to get the start up front with Son, Walker-Peters and Aurier also likely to get the nod. Barnsley have had serious troubles away from home. They have lost 8 of their last 10 road games in The Championship and this will be a new experience for mush of their young squad. There will be a handful of Spurs players pushing for a starting gig and The Wolf expects them to be focused and clinical.
Best: Teams To Score – Tottenham Only ($1.72)
Value: Time of 1st Goal – 15th minute or Earlier ($2.50)
Everton v Sunderland – (Thur 4:45am)
The Toffees had no choice but to sell Lukaku for the money they were offered by Man Utd but it has left a gaping hole in their squad. They have failed to get their hands on another striker that can play the target role and finding the net has become a major problem as a result. They have now lost their last 4 competitive matches and failed to score a single goal in the process. They were gallant against the Red Devils but conceded 3 goals in the final 10 minutes which will have  a brutal affect on team morale. It has been a similar story for Sunderland who languish in 21st place in The Championship. Rooney, Gilfy and Schneiderlin are likely to sit this one out but their absence is unlikely to have a bearing on the final result. Everton did the double over Sunderland in the Premier League last season but the Black Cats had won 4 of the last 7 before that. There is still plenty of EPL experience in the side with O’Shea, McNair, Cattermole and McGeady among others and somehow Sunderland have lost just 1 of their 6 away games this season. Everton are in a deep hole in the moment and until they find some form in attack The Wolf is happy to take them on at the price
Best: Under 2.5 goals ($1.90)
Value: Double Chance – Draw or Sunderland ($3.40)
West Brom v Man City – (Thur 5:00am)
It may have taken more than 12 months, multiple transfer windows and a full off-season but it is becoming clear that Pep Guardiola is finally putting his imprints onto Man City. They have scored 15 goals in their last 3 wins alone with the 6-0 drubbing of Watford highlighted by a Aguero hat-trick. The scary part for Man City opponents in the smaller competitions (like this one) is that there is no room for relief as their squad has incredible depth. When Gundogan, Sane, Danilo, Mangala, Delph and Bernardo Silva cannot make the starting XI you know you have a serious squad at your disposal. The Baggies have lost just once in the Premier League this season but they are yet to meet a side of City’s quality. City have won the last 11 encounters between the two sides and scored 3 or more goals in 8 of those matches. With the way they are playing at the moment The Wolf says there can only be one result!
Best: Man City Over 2.5 goals ($2.15)
Value: Man City Win Both Halves ($2.40)